Week 5 Pigskin Pick 'em/Eliminator preview

By AJ Mass
ESPN.com
Archive

Week 4 was an unmitigated disaster.

Going one game under .500 straight up was bad enough, but winning only three games against the spread was downright embarrassing. Isn't it ironic that I had my "worst week" so soon after the debut of the CBS sitcom with that same name? Still, at least we didn't have as bad a week as the cast of "Do Not Disturb," who, according to several media sources, found out this week their new show had been canceled after the airing of only three episodes. And yet there are many examples of television shows that didn't even last as long as that painful-to-watch Jerry O'Connell fiasco.

Maybe my problem is that I've been so focused on finding the winners I've forgotten to pay attention to what makes losers, well, losers. So as I try to lift my spirits from a painful Week 4, I'll attempt to mount a comeback in Week 5 while remembering a few of these television losers of years gone by. Here we go:

Tale of the Tape
Week 4, Straight Up: 6-7 (Overall: 34-26)
Week 4, Versus the Spread: 3-10 (Overall: 29-31)

Sunday, Oct. 5

Chicago at Detroit (+3½)

"'Katbot': A curious, cat-robot secret agent from the planet Katatonia is sent to Earth to study preteen culture using hypnosis to disguise herself as a foreign exchange student from a small Eastern European country." The Lions need some sort of hypnosis to disguise their run defense as something remotely NFL-worthy. It has more holes in it than Katbot's cover story, and Matt Forte should be able to post big numbers.

Prediction: Bears by 17

Atlanta at Green Bay (-7½)

"'The Global Frequency': A secret organization headed by Miranda Zero is devoted to protecting the world from secret government plots that are unknown to the public at large." Most of the Falcons' offense is unknown to the public at large as well. Roddy White posters aren't adorning the walls of young fans outside the greater Atlanta area. And forget about secret plots -- we're not sure the Falcons could stop the Packers' defensive pressure even if they knew it was coming.

Prediction: Packers by 3

San Diego at Miami (+6½)

"'Honey Vicarro': Jenny McCarthy stars as a sexy private eye who works seedy cases with the help of her chauffeur, Chad." Yes, Miami's Chad (as in Pennington) isn't a superstar who can handle the bad guys all by himself. He's merely support, there to make sure his partner is always headed in the right direction. He's doing a nice job of that so far, but to take things to the next level, he's going to need a little more star power in his receiving corps.

Prediction: Chargers by 5

Seattle at Giants (-7½)

"'Genesis II': NASA scientist Dylan Hunt gets stuck in suspended animation when his lab is buried in an earthquake." The Seattle offense has been in a state of suspended animation with injury upon injury leaving Matt Hasselbeck powerless. This week, however, the big thaw begins with the expected returns of Deion Branch, Bobby Engram and Maurice Morris. That said, it will take a little time for the effects of the long slumber to wear off.

Prediction: Giants by 16

Washington at Philadelphia (-5½)

"'The Questor Tapes': An android with incomplete memory tapes goes on a quest to find his creator and his purpose." Jason Campbell has a lot of potential. However, he's far from complete when it comes to the nuances of running an NFL offense. After several different offensive schemes, perhaps he finally has found his creator in Jim Zorn. However, it takes time to hardwire all that knowledge. Buffering …

Prediction: Eagles by 10

Kansas City at Carolina (-9½)

"'Babylon Fields': The recently deceased return to their homes in an attempt to pick up their lives where they left off." The Chiefs were left for dead after starting 0-3, yet a surprise victory against the Broncos has led Kansas City to believe it can actually return to normalcy. However, it's more likely this unexpected pulse will result in a rapid decomposition of the Chiefs' offensive abilities against the Panthers, and the townspeople will be waiting with shovels in hand to bury them once they return home.

Prediction: Panthers by 12

Tennessee at Baltimore (+3½)

"'Lookwell': Adam West stars as a washed-up TV action hero who falsely believes he can solve crimes in real life." The media has hailed Kerry Collins as the missing piece to the puzzle in Tennessee. Even though the Titans have yet to lose, it's not because of anything special that the washed-up quarterback has done. If Collins believes the hype and tries to do too much against the Ravens, he could find himself back on the bench next week, replaced by someone a little "Young-er."

Prediction: Ravens by 1

Indianapolis at Houston (+3½)

"'W*A*L*T*E*R': A spin-off of 'M*A*S*H' in which Radar O'Reilly becomes a well-respected police officer." Kevin Walter is suddenly earning respect around the league for his recent play with the Texans, but as well as he has done, he's hardly a top-caliber receiver. Sadly, he's outshining Andre Johnson, who is supposed to be the big star. Supporting characters aren't supposed to take over the lead, and this Walter's show will surely be canceled as well if he's asked to carry the full weight of the load.

Prediction: Colts by 7

Tampa Bay at Denver (-3½)

"'The Dictator': Christopher Lloyd is the former dictator of a foreign country, now living in a laundromat." Both coaches in this game escaped from The Dictator Al Davis' regime with the Raiders. While disarray continues in Oakland, this game will be a close battle of two leaders who have learned that to succeed, they must do things their own way, no matter what anybody thinks. In a contest that's too close to call, we'll simply go with the home team.

Prediction: Broncos by 1

Buffalo at Arizona (-½)

"'Stick Around': A robot (Andy Kaufman) living in an antique shop in the year 2055 slowly realizes he himself is one of the antiques." Pity Kurt Warner. For all of his passing skill, the fact is that his body is breaking down, and each successive week we are more and more amazed that he's able to get back up from the seemingly endless barrage of hits he is subjected to by opposing defenses. Buffalo might well be the team that puts him out of commission once and for all.

Prediction: Bills by 7

New England at San Francisco (+3½)

"'Beanes of Boston': A lifeless adaptation of the classic British sitcom 'Are You Being Served?'" Sometimes you simply can't recapture the spirit of the original. This Matt Cassel-led offense might seem similar to the Tom Brady-led version, but it's equally as lifeless as Beanes was. This Patriots team is a shell of its former self, and after a bye week and a long trip across the country, the Pats might have difficulty getting back into the flow of things.

Prediction: Niners by 3

Cincinnati at Dallas (-15½)

"'The Art of Being Nick': After breaking up with Mallory Keaton, artist/environmentalist Nick Moore goes home to Ohio to try to pick up the pieces." These Ohio players aren't on a roller coaster because so far they've gone in only one direction: down. A trip to Dallas isn't exactly going to help them begin to pick up the pieces of this lost season, especially with a quarterback who physically finds it impossible to throw the ball in practice.

Prediction: Cowboys by 18

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-4½)

"'Acting Sheriff': Robert Goulet stars as a B-movie actor who is elected to be sheriff in a small Northern California town." Meanwhile, Mewelde Moore stars as a third-string running back who suddenly gets promoted to lead back when injuries strike Pittsburgh. The funny thing about the "acting sheriff" is that one of the only critics who feels positive about his chances of success is from a Florida newspaper. So while the rest of the league might not be impressed with Mewelde, the team from Florida could have some rave reviews.

Prediction: Steelers by 3

Monday, Oct. 6

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3½)

"'Heat Vision and Jack': A former astronaut, exposed to inappropriate levels of solar energy, gains the power of super-intelligence -- but only during the day. Oh, and he has a talking motorcycle. Seriously." Gus Frerotte on Monday night? Forget smarts. Unless he suddenly has gained super-strength and super-accuracy in his throwing arm, the Vikings are in for a tough time playing catch-up against the aerial assault of Drew Brees and the Saints.

Prediction: Saints by 8

Eliminator

The ESPN Eliminator requires that you make one and only one pick each week. You win and you live to pick again. You lose and it's all over. In Week 4, in spite of an awful overall record, we survived yet again with our top choice, the Bills, and still managed to earn 10 out of a possible 15 points for the week. That has put our success ratio at 70 percent overall (42 of 60) for the season. Many people got tripped up by the Broncos losing to the Chiefs. Certainly that result came out of nowhere, but it does point out the pitfalls of division rivalries. When two teams play each other twice a season, year after year after year, that kind of familiarity certainly increases the odds of an unexpected upset. That's why we're going to steer clear of the Eagles-Redskins matchup in a one-and-done scenario, even if we do expect the Eagles to win at home. However, even though we probably should know better, we can't help but select Chicago, even on the road against division-rival Detroit. After all, just because there could be an upset doesn't mean there has to be one. Here are all of our Week 5 selections:

DEFCON 5:Bears
DEFCON 4:Cowboys
DEFCON 3: Giants
DEFCON 2: Panthers
DEFCON 1: Saints

Good luck to all of you, and remember that you might not agree with my picks, but we can all agree that "Pink Lady and Jeff" was a really bad idea.

AJ Mass is a fantasy football, baseball and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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